tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post4693748738239557738..comments2023-04-29T05:32:18.995-05:00Comments on THE PEDIGREE CURMUDGEON: The future is now?John P. Sparkmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17859746883188760958noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post-12775087053277077592010-01-22T13:11:43.596-06:002010-01-22T13:11:43.596-06:00Hill's mtDNA study was "financed in full ...Hill's mtDNA study was "financed in full by [Maktoum's] Gainsborough Stud Management Ltd." per acknowledgement in the report published 2002.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post-39163566878233955282010-01-22T13:04:56.722-06:002010-01-22T13:04:56.722-06:00Michael, re. "Massively large effect size for...Michael, re. "Massively large effect size for just 2 Base Pairs though. Does anyone know if the Base Pairs are right next to each other or not?" <br />This involves a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the myostatin (MSTN) gene on chromosome 18. In other words, one base pair, not two. But each individual has two copies of chrom. 18 and will be C/C, C/T, or T/T depending on the genotype of the parents.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post-26697485760229740302010-01-17T22:54:18.781-06:002010-01-17T22:54:18.781-06:00Hmmmmm.....let's see ... I and some of my form...Hmmmmm.....let's see ... I and some of my former Harvard colleagues have been working for several years on a multi-factoral study of bloodlines related to 57,000 races. Although it is too early to report our findings as we are still determining various regression coefficients, we have enough preliminary data to suggest that Hill and Bolger's innovative inquiry will most likely achieve little more than archival status. <br /><br />To wit, if veterinary intervention (or interference) accounts for 25+% of the variance for performance, post position and racing luck 15%, the vagaries of jockey differences, decisions, and mis-use of the whip 20+%, training regimens and soundness 25+%, and a particular horse's idiosyncratic mood swings or feelings of well being on a given day 10+%, we don't leave much room for a genetic contribution to performance or for postulating much predictive basis for "natural ability" to win the day.<br /><br />So relax, Frankie ... this project will build careers and perhaps win awards, but its impact on racing outcome will likely be quite minimal.Rob Whiteleyhttp://www.liberationfarm.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post-46881833532799969632010-01-17T17:15:44.112-06:002010-01-17T17:15:44.112-06:00John,
In papers already released the number of ca...John,<br /><br />In papers already released the number of candidate genes for athletic performance has lifted dramatically in a short period of time. Even if they did identify ALL the genes, I have no doubt that they will be talking in percentage chance rather than absolutes which, as you point out, the market seems to crave.<br /><br />ByronByron Rogershttp://www.pedigreeconsultants.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post-22269311649842183142010-01-17T16:44:00.265-06:002010-01-17T16:44:00.265-06:00I completely share your skepticism, John. And whil...I completely share your skepticism, John. And while genetic clues may ultimately prove more valuable to buyers than, say, heart scoring, the history of the latter in terms of claims vs. actual performance will probably remain a good guide to reasonable expectations.<br /><br />In other words, many consumers who can afford anything they like have, after trying heart measurements systems, either reduced or completely eliminated them from their pre-purchase screenings.<br /><br />This is not meant to single out heart measuring, but rather to make the obvious point that there will never be a single variable identified that will allow the wealthiest consumers to corner the market on top racehorses. <br /><br />Luckily, as mentioned above, there are no genes that will ever allow consumers to distinguish between the type of Thoroughbred that wins 20 of 70 starts, and the one that struggles to win more than one or two races.Tinkynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post-77360732510124038292010-01-17T16:06:40.376-06:002010-01-17T16:06:40.376-06:00Not only is heritability of performance estimated ...Not only is heritability of performance estimated at "only" 35% or thereabouts, but I seriously doubt that Dr. Hill nor anyone else would claim, at this point anyway, to have identified ALL or even a substantial portion of the genes responsible for that heritability. The problem is, though, that the buying public generally is not sophisticated enough to understand that distinction. My experience in this business is that far too many buyers want a black or white, yes or no answer in a business where the only true answer is always "maybe". And that far too many bloodstock agents are willing to give black and white answers in order to make a sale.<br /><br />Since she is a scientist, I'm confident Dr. Hill will try to explain that reality, but too many buyers won't want to hear it. I suspect that, as much as anything, is what concerns Frank and should concern sellers. <br /><br />Thanks for the information on publication Byron. I'll look forward to hearing from Dr. Hill toward the end of the month.<br /><br />JPSJohn P. Sparkmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17859746883188760958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post-76424324058551941392010-01-17T15:11:50.501-06:002010-01-17T15:11:50.501-06:00John,
My understanding is that Equinome and their...John,<br /><br />My understanding is that Equinome and their Equinome Speed Gene Test will be released on the 29th of January. There will be a scientific paper associated with it that will be released prior (probably on PLOS1). I have correspondence with Dr Hill and I will have her send you the paper when it is released.<br /><br />Frank....the domesday prediction is a little unrealistic. By their own admission the hereditability of genes is about 30-35% which still leaves room for 1) Efficiency of the biomechanics of the said horse, 2) The nutrition, environment and training conditions and 3) a little thing called will to win or heart.<br /><br />There is no doubt that genetics and geneticists will have a greater role in this game. I would be more excited to see them identify and operate on candidate genes for bleeding, roaring, and other ailments that prevent thoroughbreds from reaching their full potential. Wastage in tohoroughbreds is enormous and this is an area I think that they could make a very positive impact on.<br /><br />ByronByron Rogershttp://www.pedigreeconsultants.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4836301946075505494.post-33019823156776884872010-01-17T14:09:32.925-06:002010-01-17T14:09:32.925-06:00If their test actually works well, the game is ove...If their test actually works well, the game is over. Finished. A handful of extraordinarily wealthy buyers will swamp the market for a handful of horses, and the rest won't be worth the price of dog food.<br /><br />So let's wish 'em as much luck as the Spanish Armada.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />Frankfrank mitchellhttp://fmitchell07.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.com